國立虎尾科技大學 |

The Russo-Ukrainian Pre-War Crisis : = A Comparative Test of Rational Choice, Expected Utility, Poliheuristic, and Prospect Theories to Explain the War's Outbreak.

Record Type:	Language materials, manuscript : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	The Russo-Ukrainian Pre-War Crisis :/
Reminder of title:	A Comparative Test of Rational Choice, Expected Utility, Poliheuristic, and Prospect Theories to Explain the War's Outbreak.
Author:	Reisner, Daniel J.
Description:	1 online resource (265 pages)
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-04, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International85-04B.
Subject:	Political science. -
Online resource:	click for full text (PQDT)
ISBN:	9798380597425

The Russo-Ukrainian Pre-War Crisis : = A Comparative Test of Rational Choice, Expected Utility, Poliheuristic, and Prospect Theories to Explain the War's Outbreak.
Reisner, Daniel J.

The Russo-Ukrainian Pre-War Crisis :A Comparative Test of Rational Choice, Expected Utility, Poliheuristic, and Prospect Theories to Explain the War's Outbreak. - 1 online resource (265 pages)

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-04, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Salve Regina University, 2023.

Includes bibliographical references

Given the tremendous suffering created by the Russo-Ukrainian war and its profound international security implications, policymakers and international relations scholars must fully grasp why the three-month pre-war crisis erupted and ultimately ended in conflict instead of de-escalation. Accordingly, this mixed approach study seeks to identify the most likely crisis-related decision-making strategies adopted by President Biden, Zelensky, and Putin. The dissertation tests rational choice, expected utility, poliheuristic, and prospect theory frameworks against the critical decisions made by the three presidents. The dissertation's findings indicate that a Prospect Theory-based framework provides the most accurate predictions of the four models tested to explain five critical decisions made immediately before and during the crisis. The Prospect Theory model consistently preferred the non-conciliatory alternatives available to each President, thus steering the crisis into war, which all actors would have preferred to avoid. Further, and to an unexpected degree, the study's incidental finding highlights the salience of politics in decision-making, concluding that a simple lexicographic decision rule grounded in political interests accurately predicts and explains each leader's choices more reliably and parsimoniously than the four tested frameworks and just as elegantly. This decision strategy, conceptualized as the political-lexicographic model (PLM), is offered as an alternative framework that most aptly explains and predicts the three Presidents' crisis decision-making strategies. Additionally, the dissertation's comparative approach, which evaluates multiple political leaders involved in the crisis and tests competing decision theories through qualitative and quantitative lenses, demonstrates the value of incorporating several theoretical models and overweighting the political dimension when explaining or attempting to forecast a crisis outcome. The conceptual framework offered in this study is practical, intuitive, and easily adaptable by policymakers, analysts, and scholars. The conclusions and recommendations in this dissertation will ideally contribute to more accurate and reliable predictions and accounts of foreign policy decisions, especially those that involve the potential for inter-state conflict.

Electronic reproduction.
Ann Arbor, Mich. :
ProQuest,
2024

Mode of access: World Wide Web

ISBN: 9798380597425Subjects--Topical Terms:

558774
Political science.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Decision makingIndex Terms--Genre/Form:

554714
Electronic books.

The Russo-Ukrainian Pre-War Crisis : = A Comparative Test of Rational Choice, Expected Utility, Poliheuristic, and Prospect Theories to Explain the War's Outbreak.
LDR:03842ntm a22004097 4500 001 1149806
005 20241022110517.5
006 m o d
007 cr bn ---uuuuu
008 250605s2023 xx obm 000 0 eng d
020 $a 9798380597425
035 $a (MiAaPQ)AAI30689824
035 $a AAI30689824
040 $a MiAaPQ $b eng $c MiAaPQ $d NTU
100 1 $a Reisner, Daniel J. $3 1476156
245 1 4 $a The Russo-Ukrainian Pre-War Crisis : $b A Comparative Test of Rational Choice, Expected Utility, Poliheuristic, and Prospect Theories to Explain the War's Outbreak.
264 0 $c 2023
300 $a 1 online resource (265 pages)
336 $a text $b txt $2 rdacontent
337 $a computer $b c $2 rdamedia
338 $a online resource $b cr $2 rdacarrier
500 $a Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-04, Section: B.
500 $a Advisor: Buckman, Kirk.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Salve Regina University, 2023.
504 $a Includes bibliographical references
520 $a Given the tremendous suffering created by the Russo-Ukrainian war and its profound international security implications, policymakers and international relations scholars must fully grasp why the three-month pre-war crisis erupted and ultimately ended in conflict instead of de-escalation. Accordingly, this mixed approach study seeks to identify the most likely crisis-related decision-making strategies adopted by President Biden, Zelensky, and Putin. The dissertation tests rational choice, expected utility, poliheuristic, and prospect theory frameworks against the critical decisions made by the three presidents. The dissertation's findings indicate that a Prospect Theory-based framework provides the most accurate predictions of the four models tested to explain five critical decisions made immediately before and during the crisis. The Prospect Theory model consistently preferred the non-conciliatory alternatives available to each President, thus steering the crisis into war, which all actors would have preferred to avoid. Further, and to an unexpected degree, the study's incidental finding highlights the salience of politics in decision-making, concluding that a simple lexicographic decision rule grounded in political interests accurately predicts and explains each leader's choices more reliably and parsimoniously than the four tested frameworks and just as elegantly. This decision strategy, conceptualized as the political-lexicographic model (PLM), is offered as an alternative framework that most aptly explains and predicts the three Presidents' crisis decision-making strategies. Additionally, the dissertation's comparative approach, which evaluates multiple political leaders involved in the crisis and tests competing decision theories through qualitative and quantitative lenses, demonstrates the value of incorporating several theoretical models and overweighting the political dimension when explaining or attempting to forecast a crisis outcome. The conceptual framework offered in this study is practical, intuitive, and easily adaptable by policymakers, analysts, and scholars. The conclusions and recommendations in this dissertation will ideally contribute to more accurate and reliable predictions and accounts of foreign policy decisions, especially those that involve the potential for inter-state conflict.
533 $a Electronic reproduction. $b Ann Arbor, Mich. : $c ProQuest, $d 2024
538 $a Mode of access: World Wide Web
650 4 $a Political science. $3 558774
650 4 $a Cognitive psychology. $3 556029
653 $a Decision making
653 $a Decision theory
653 $a Foreign policy
653 $a International crises
653 $a Prospect theory
653 $a Russo-Ukrainian war
655 7 $a Electronic books. $2 local $3 554714
690 $a 0601
690 $a 0615
690 $a 0633
710 2 $a ProQuest Information and Learning Co. $3 1178819
710 2 $a Salve Regina University. $b International Relations. $3 1464621
773 0 $t Dissertations Abstracts International $g 85-04B.
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=30689824 $z click for full text (PQDT)