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Essays on Inference from Option Markets.

Record Type:	Language materials, manuscript : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Essays on Inference from Option Markets./
Author:	Dossani, Asad Rafiq.
Description:	1 online resource (141 pages)
Notes:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 79-12(E), Section: A.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International79-12A(E).
Subject:	Finance. -
Online resource:	click for full text (PQDT)
ISBN:	9780438167841

Essays on Inference from Option Markets.
Dossani, Asad Rafiq.

Essays on Inference from Option Markets. - 1 online resource (141 pages)

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 79-12(E), Section: A.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2018.

Includes bibliographical references

This dissertation consists of three chapters that analyze the economic information contained in option markets. Option markets are forward looking, and thus contain valuable insight into the beliefs of financial market participants. They can be used to study risk premia and to make forecasts. The Chapter 1, Central Bank Tone and Currency Risk Premia, asks how the tone of central bank press conferences impacts risk premia in the currency market. First, I find that option implied risk aversion increases when central banks are hawkish, and decreases when central banks are dovish. Second, I find that hawkish central bank tone predicts higher future variance risk premia, and vice versa. One explanation for this result is that the tone of a press conference indicates to investors the likelihood of central bank intervention, conditional on the state of the economy. Chapter 2, Monetary Stimulus and Perception of Risk, investigates the relationship between monetary stimulus and the perception of risk in financial markets, and how this varies across asset classes. First, I document a positive relationship between monetary stimulus and the perception of risk in equity, commodity, and currency markets. I document a negative relationship between monetary stimulus and the perception of risk in bond markets. Second, I establish a cointegrating relationship between monetary stimulus and implied volatility, indicating a positive long run equilibrium relationship in the levels of monetary stimulus and implied volatility. This relationship is present across asset classes. Third, I document the link between monetary stimulus and expected inflation, a possible mechanism by which monetary stimulus affects the perception of risk across financial markets. Chapter 3, Option Augmented Density Forecasts of Market Return with Monotone Pricing Kernel, considers consider an option augmented density forecast of the market return obtained by transforming a baseline density forecast estimated from past excess returns so as to monotonize its ratio with a risk neutral density estimated from current option prices. We find that monotonizing the pricing kernel leads to a modest improvement in the calibration of density forecasts.

Electronic reproduction.
Ann Arbor, Mich. :
ProQuest,
2018

Mode of access: World Wide Web

ISBN: 9780438167841Subjects--Topical Terms:

559073
Finance.
Index Terms--Genre/Form:

554714
Electronic books.

Essays on Inference from Option Markets.
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500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 79-12(E), Section: A.
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502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2018.
504 $a Includes bibliographical references
520 $a This dissertation consists of three chapters that analyze the economic information contained in option markets. Option markets are forward looking, and thus contain valuable insight into the beliefs of financial market participants. They can be used to study risk premia and to make forecasts. The Chapter 1, Central Bank Tone and Currency Risk Premia, asks how the tone of central bank press conferences impacts risk premia in the currency market. First, I find that option implied risk aversion increases when central banks are hawkish, and decreases when central banks are dovish. Second, I find that hawkish central bank tone predicts higher future variance risk premia, and vice versa. One explanation for this result is that the tone of a press conference indicates to investors the likelihood of central bank intervention, conditional on the state of the economy. Chapter 2, Monetary Stimulus and Perception of Risk, investigates the relationship between monetary stimulus and the perception of risk in financial markets, and how this varies across asset classes. First, I document a positive relationship between monetary stimulus and the perception of risk in equity, commodity, and currency markets. I document a negative relationship between monetary stimulus and the perception of risk in bond markets. Second, I establish a cointegrating relationship between monetary stimulus and implied volatility, indicating a positive long run equilibrium relationship in the levels of monetary stimulus and implied volatility. This relationship is present across asset classes. Third, I document the link between monetary stimulus and expected inflation, a possible mechanism by which monetary stimulus affects the perception of risk across financial markets. Chapter 3, Option Augmented Density Forecasts of Market Return with Monotone Pricing Kernel, considers consider an option augmented density forecast of the market return obtained by transforming a baseline density forecast estimated from past excess returns so as to monotonize its ratio with a risk neutral density estimated from current option prices. We find that monotonizing the pricing kernel leads to a modest improvement in the calibration of density forecasts.
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