國立虎尾科技大學 |

Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America

紀錄類型:	書目-語言資料,印刷品 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America/ by Christian Dayé.
作者:	Dayé, Christian.
面頁冊數:	XVI, 246 p. 12 illus.online resource. :
Contained By:	Springer Nature eBook
標題:	US History. -
電子資源:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1
ISBN:	9783030327811

Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America
Dayé, Christian.

Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America[electronic resource] /by Christian Dayé. - 1st ed. 2020. - XVI, 246 p. 12 illus.online resource. - Socio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences. - Socio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences.

1. Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and its Experts -- 2. Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust. - 3. The Wisdom of the Group: RAND's First Experiments with Expert Prediction, 1947-1951 -- 4. Negotiating Rules for the Game: Political Games at RAND, 1954-1956 -- 5. The Oracle's Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material -- 6.The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963-1964 -- 7. Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes. .

This book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Dayé analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming. Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of one of the core categories of the Cold War, the expert, and uncover the systematic use of expert opinions to craft prognoses. This consideration of the expert’s role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy. .

ISBN: 9783030327811

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

1105299
US History.

LC Class. No.: HM24-37

Dewey Class. No.: 306.42

Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America
LDR:02851nam a22004095i 4500 001 1019194
003 DE-He213
005 20200704070217.0
007 cr nn 008mamaa
008 210318s2020 gw | s |||| 0|eng d
020 $a 9783030327811 $9 978-3-030-32781-1
024 7 $a 10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1 $2 doi
035 $a 978-3-030-32781-1
050 4 $a HM24-37
072 7 $a JHB $2 bicssc
072 7 $a SOC026000 $2 bisacsh
072 7 $a JHB $2 thema
082 0 4 $a 306.42 $2 23
100 1 $a Dayé, Christian. $e author. $4 aut $4 http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut $3 1314385
245 1 0 $a Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America $h [electronic resource] / $c by Christian Dayé.
250 $a 1st ed. 2020.
264 1 $a Cham : $b Springer International Publishing : $b Imprint: Palgrave Macmillan, $c 2020.
300 $a XVI, 246 p. 12 illus. $b online resource.
336 $a text $b txt $2 rdacontent
337 $a computer $b c $2 rdamedia
338 $a online resource $b cr $2 rdacarrier
347 $a text file $b PDF $2 rda
490 1 $a Socio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences
505 0 $a 1. Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and its Experts -- 2. Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust. - 3. The Wisdom of the Group: RAND's First Experiments with Expert Prediction, 1947-1951 -- 4. Negotiating Rules for the Game: Political Games at RAND, 1954-1956 -- 5. The Oracle's Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material -- 6.The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963-1964 -- 7. Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes. .
520 $a This book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Dayé analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming. Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of one of the core categories of the Cold War, the expert, and uncover the systematic use of expert opinions to craft prognoses. This consideration of the expert’s role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy. .
650 2 4 $a US History. $3 1105299
650 2 4 $a Intellectual Studies. $3 1105218
650 2 4 $a Political Sociology. $3 1107317
650 2 4 $a Historical Sociology. $3 1111646
650 1 4 $a Knowledge - Discourse. $3 1063331
650 0 $a United States—History. $3 1254156
650 0 $a Intellectual life—History. $3 1259361
650 0 $a Political sociology. $3 559756
650 0 $a Historical sociology. $3 802292
650 0 $a Sociology. $3 551705
710 2 $a SpringerLink (Online service) $3 593884
773 0 $t Springer Nature eBook
776 0 8 $i Printed edition: $z 9783030327804
776 0 8 $i Printed edition: $z 9783030327828
776 0 8 $i Printed edition: $z 9783030327835
830 0 $a Socio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences $3 1282466
856 4 0 $u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1
912 $a ZDB-2-SLS
912 $a ZDB-2-SXS
950 $a Social Sciences (SpringerNature-41176)
950 $a Social Sciences (R0) (SpringerNature-43726)