國立虎尾科技大學 |

Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Record Type:	Language materials, printed : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Developments in Demographic Forecasting/ edited by Stefano Mazzuco, Nico Keilman.
other author:	Mazzuco, Stefano.
Description:	VIII, 258 p. 86 illus.online resource. :
Contained By:	Springer Nature eBook
Subject:	Demography. -
Online resource:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5
ISBN:	9783030424725

Developments in Demographic Forecasting
Developments in Demographic Forecasting[electronic resource] /edited by Stefano Mazzuco, Nico Keilman. - 1st ed. 2020. - VIII, 258 p. 86 illus.online resource. - The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis,491389-6784 ;. - The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis,40.

Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. Stochastic population forecasting: A Bayesian approach based on evaluation by experts -- Chapter 3. Using expert elicitation to build long-term projection assumptions -- Chapter 4. Post-Transitional Demography and Convergence: What can we Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects? -- Chapter 5. Projecting Proportionate Age–Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes -- Chapter 6. A Three-component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-death Distributions -- Chapter 7. Alternative forecasts of Danish life expectancy -- Chapter 8. Coherent mortality forecasting with standards: low mortality serves as a guide -- Chapter 9. European mortality forecasts: Are the targets still moving? -- Chapter 10. Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in Iceland -- Chapter 11. Forecasting origin-destination-age-sex migration flow tables with multiplicative components -- Chapter 12. New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing.

Open Access

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

ISBN: 9783030424725

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

527764
Demography.

LC Class. No.: HB848-3697

Dewey Class. No.: 304.6

Developments in Demographic Forecasting
LDR:03448nam a22004335i 4500 001 1029754
003 DE-He213
005 20200928182933.0
007 cr nn 008mamaa
008 210318s2020 gw | s |||| 0|eng d
020 $a 9783030424725 $9 978-3-030-42472-5
024 7 $a 10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5 $2 doi
035 $a 978-3-030-42472-5
050 4 $a HB848-3697
072 7 $a JHBD $2 bicssc
072 7 $a SOC006000 $2 bisacsh
072 7 $a JHBD $2 thema
082 0 4 $a 304.6 $2 23
245 1 0 $a Developments in Demographic Forecasting $h [electronic resource] / $c edited by Stefano Mazzuco, Nico Keilman.
250 $a 1st ed. 2020.
264 1 $a Cham : $b Springer International Publishing : $b Imprint: Springer, $c 2020.
300 $a VIII, 258 p. 86 illus. $b online resource.
336 $a text $b txt $2 rdacontent
337 $a computer $b c $2 rdamedia
338 $a online resource $b cr $2 rdacarrier
347 $a text file $b PDF $2 rda
490 1 $a The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, $x 1389-6784 ; $v 49
505 0 $a Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. Stochastic population forecasting: A Bayesian approach based on evaluation by experts -- Chapter 3. Using expert elicitation to build long-term projection assumptions -- Chapter 4. Post-Transitional Demography and Convergence: What can we Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects? -- Chapter 5. Projecting Proportionate Age–Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes -- Chapter 6. A Three-component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-death Distributions -- Chapter 7. Alternative forecasts of Danish life expectancy -- Chapter 8. Coherent mortality forecasting with standards: low mortality serves as a guide -- Chapter 9. European mortality forecasts: Are the targets still moving? -- Chapter 10. Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in Iceland -- Chapter 11. Forecasting origin-destination-age-sex migration flow tables with multiplicative components -- Chapter 12. New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing.
506 0 $a Open Access
520 $a This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
650 0 $a Demography. $3 527764
650 0 $a Statistics . $3 1253516
650 2 4 $a Statistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law. $3 1211304
700 1 $a Mazzuco, Stefano. $e editor. $4 edt $4 http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/edt $3 1326565
700 1 $a Keilman, Nico. $e editor. $4 edt $4 http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/edt $3 1308070
710 2 $a SpringerLink (Online service) $3 593884
773 0 $t Springer Nature eBook
776 0 8 $i Printed edition: $z 9783030424718
776 0 8 $i Printed edition: $z 9783030424732
776 0 8 $i Printed edition: $z 9783030424749
830 0 $a The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, $x 1389-6784 ; $v 40 $3 1268711
856 4 0 $u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5
912 $a ZDB-2-HTY
912 $a ZDB-2-SXH
912 $a ZDB-2-SOB
950 $a History (SpringerNature-41172)
950 $a History (R0) (SpringerNature-43722)