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Mathematical Modeling of Covid-19 Transmission at High-Visit Colorado Ski Areas and Deterministic Simulation of Outbreak Trajectories During the 2020-21 Ski Season.

Record Type:	Language materials, printed : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Mathematical Modeling of Covid-19 Transmission at High-Visit Colorado Ski Areas and Deterministic Simulation of Outbreak Trajectories During the 2020-21 Ski Season./
Author:	Wu, Emily Joan.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2021,
Description:	42 p.
Notes:	Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 83-01.
Contained By:	Masters Abstracts International83-01.
Subject:	Epidemiology. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=28543800
ISBN:	9798516080814

Mathematical Modeling of Covid-19 Transmission at High-Visit Colorado Ski Areas and Deterministic Simulation of Outbreak Trajectories During the 2020-21 Ski Season.
Wu, Emily Joan.

Mathematical Modeling of Covid-19 Transmission at High-Visit Colorado Ski Areas and Deterministic Simulation of Outbreak Trajectories During the 2020-21 Ski Season. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2021 - 42 p.

Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 83-01.

Thesis (M.Sc.)--University of Colorado Denver, Anschutz Medical Campus, 2021.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

Colorado’s ski economy was one of many industries significantly affected by COVID-19 lockdowns and closures during the spring of 2020. With the 2020-21 ski season now underway, health officials and stakeholders in Colorado’s high country are striving to recover the financial losses from last season’s abrupt ending and restore a highly important social activity while still containing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within their communities. This analysis uses an age-stratified, deterministic SEIR compartmental model of infectious disease transmission to simulate outbreak trajectories in the region containing Summit, Eagle, Grand, Pitkin, Routt, and Garfield Counties, incorporating the effects of decreased outside visitation, increased national prevalence, and contact tracing efforts in order to ascertain the minimum level of transmission control that would need to be achieved to keep the density of new infections below a predetermined safe threshold for the entire duration of the 2020-21 ski season. While decreased outside visitation to the six- county region seems to have little effect on the policies and behaviors required to stay below this threshold, increased national prevalence appears to have a substantial effect. Contact tracing efforts also have a noticeable positive impact, no matter the circumstances. Focusing not on limiting visitors, but rather on minimizing the risk of visitors entering the region while infectious, as well as implementing effective forms of contact tracing to include enforcement of isolation and quarantine of residents, visitors, and seasonal employees, may be part of a valuable set of strategies for Colorado ski areas to contain viral transmission while still protecting social and economic wellbeing.

ISBN: 9798516080814Subjects--Topical Terms:

635923
Epidemiology.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Covid-19

Mathematical Modeling of Covid-19 Transmission at High-Visit Colorado Ski Areas and Deterministic Simulation of Outbreak Trajectories During the 2020-21 Ski Season.
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