國立虎尾科技大學 |

The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States = 100 Years of Empirical Evidence and the Opportunities for the Future /

紀錄類型:	書目-語言資料,印刷品 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States/ by John B. Guerard.
其他題名:	100 Years of Empirical Evidence and the Opportunities for the Future /
作者:	Guerard, John B.
面頁冊數:	XXIV, 650 p. 210 illus., 91 illus. in color.online resource. :
Contained By:	Springer Nature eBook
標題:	Financial History. -
電子資源:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-99418-1
ISBN:	9783030994181

The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States = 100 Years of Empirical Evidence and the Opportunities for the Future /
Guerard, John B.

The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States100 Years of Empirical Evidence and the Opportunities for the Future /[electronic resource] :by John B. Guerard. - 1st ed. 2022. - XXIV, 650 p. 210 illus., 91 illus. in color.online resource.

Chapter 1. Economic Growth and Business Cycles in the United States -- Chapter 2. Mr. Wesley Clair Mitchell: The Advent of U.S. and NBER Business Cycle Research -- Chapter 3. Measuring Business Activity, An Introductions to the Contributions of Mr. Persons, Mr. Schumpeter, Mr. Haberler, and Mr. Eckstein -- Chapter 4. Mr. Burns and Mr. Mitchell on Measuring Business Cycles -- Chapter 5. Mr. Geoffrey Moore and NBER Business Cycle Research -- Chapter 6. Mr. Victor Zarnowitz and Economic Forecasting, and NBER Business Cycle Research -- Chapter 7. Regression and Time Series Modeling of Real GDP, the Unemployment Rate, and the Impact of Leading Economic Indicators on Forecasting Accuracy -- Chapter 8. Granger-Causality Testing and LEI Forecasting of Quarterly Mergers and the Unemployment Rate -- Chapter 9. Active Management in Portfolio Selection and Management within Business Cycles and Present-Day COVID -- Chapter 10. Testing and Forecasting the Unemployment Rate with the Most Current Data, TCB LEI, data as of 11/05/2021 -- Chapter 11. Conclusions and Summary.

“This book blends two important topics: 1) An interesting history of research on economic growth and business cycles from the 1900’s to today, and 2) A review and application of many of the newest econometric techniques to forecasting economic growth and stock prices. The integration of these two topics produce a volume that should be interesting and useful for both academics and practitioners in the fields of economics and finance.” —Martin J. Gruber, Professor Emeritus and Scholar in Residence, NYU “John Guerard should be congratulated for writing an authoritative book on business cycles and the use of cyclical indicators in their historical perspectives. It covers the contributions of giants of the field including those by Wesley Mitchell, Arthur Burns, Geoffrey Moore, and Victor Zarnowitz, highlighting the statistical aspects of the issues involved. The book will specifically be useful for economic analysts and practitioners who are in the business of tracking the economy in real time.” —Kajal Lahiri, Distinguished Professor of Economics and Health Policy, Mgt., & Behavior, University at Albany: SUNY In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy. This monograph explores time series forecasting and economic cycles using the Leading Economic Indicators, LEI, which are maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given the highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, the LEI series is particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles. John B. Guerard, Jr., is a member of the McKinley Capital Management Scientific Advisory Board, where he previously served as Director of Quantitative Research in Anchorage, Alaska. John is affiliated with the Computational Finance and Risk Management Program, The University of Washington, Seattle, WA. He earned his AB in Economics from Duke University and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Texas, Austin. John serves an Associate Editor of the Journal of Investing and The International Journal of Forecasting and has published in these journals as well as Management Science, and Annals of Operations Research.

ISBN: 9783030994181

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-030-99418-1doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

1104729
Financial History.

LC Class. No.: HB139-141

Dewey Class. No.: 330.9

The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States = 100 Years of Empirical Evidence and the Opportunities for the Future /
LDR:04738nam a22003975i 4500 001 1088276
003 DE-He213
005 20220706101135.0
007 cr nn 008mamaa
008 221228s2022 sz | s |||| 0|eng d
020 $a 9783030994181 $9 978-3-030-99418-1
024 7 $a 10.1007/978-3-030-99418-1 $2 doi
035 $a 978-3-030-99418-1
050 4 $a HB139-141
072 7 $a KCA $2 bicssc
072 7 $a BUS069030 $2 bisacsh
072 7 $a KCA $2 thema
082 0 4 $a 330.9 $2 23
100 1 $a Guerard, John B. $4 aut $4 http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut $3 1074081
245 1 4 $a The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States $h [electronic resource] : $b 100 Years of Empirical Evidence and the Opportunities for the Future / $c by John B. Guerard.
250 $a 1st ed. 2022.
264 1 $a Cham : $b Springer International Publishing : $b Imprint: Palgrave Macmillan, $c 2022.
300 $a XXIV, 650 p. 210 illus., 91 illus. in color. $b online resource.
336 $a text $b txt $2 rdacontent
337 $a computer $b c $2 rdamedia
338 $a online resource $b cr $2 rdacarrier
347 $a text file $b PDF $2 rda
505 0 $a Chapter 1. Economic Growth and Business Cycles in the United States -- Chapter 2. Mr. Wesley Clair Mitchell: The Advent of U.S. and NBER Business Cycle Research -- Chapter 3. Measuring Business Activity, An Introductions to the Contributions of Mr. Persons, Mr. Schumpeter, Mr. Haberler, and Mr. Eckstein -- Chapter 4. Mr. Burns and Mr. Mitchell on Measuring Business Cycles -- Chapter 5. Mr. Geoffrey Moore and NBER Business Cycle Research -- Chapter 6. Mr. Victor Zarnowitz and Economic Forecasting, and NBER Business Cycle Research -- Chapter 7. Regression and Time Series Modeling of Real GDP, the Unemployment Rate, and the Impact of Leading Economic Indicators on Forecasting Accuracy -- Chapter 8. Granger-Causality Testing and LEI Forecasting of Quarterly Mergers and the Unemployment Rate -- Chapter 9. Active Management in Portfolio Selection and Management within Business Cycles and Present-Day COVID -- Chapter 10. Testing and Forecasting the Unemployment Rate with the Most Current Data, TCB LEI, data as of 11/05/2021 -- Chapter 11. Conclusions and Summary.
520 $a “This book blends two important topics: 1) An interesting history of research on economic growth and business cycles from the 1900’s to today, and 2) A review and application of many of the newest econometric techniques to forecasting economic growth and stock prices. The integration of these two topics produce a volume that should be interesting and useful for both academics and practitioners in the fields of economics and finance.” —Martin J. Gruber, Professor Emeritus and Scholar in Residence, NYU “John Guerard should be congratulated for writing an authoritative book on business cycles and the use of cyclical indicators in their historical perspectives. It covers the contributions of giants of the field including those by Wesley Mitchell, Arthur Burns, Geoffrey Moore, and Victor Zarnowitz, highlighting the statistical aspects of the issues involved. The book will specifically be useful for economic analysts and practitioners who are in the business of tracking the economy in real time.” —Kajal Lahiri, Distinguished Professor of Economics and Health Policy, Mgt., & Behavior, University at Albany: SUNY In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy. This monograph explores time series forecasting and economic cycles using the Leading Economic Indicators, LEI, which are maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given the highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, the LEI series is particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles. John B. Guerard, Jr., is a member of the McKinley Capital Management Scientific Advisory Board, where he previously served as Director of Quantitative Research in Anchorage, Alaska. John is affiliated with the Computational Finance and Risk Management Program, The University of Washington, Seattle, WA. He earned his AB in Economics from Duke University and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Texas, Austin. John serves an Associate Editor of the Journal of Investing and The International Journal of Forecasting and has published in these journals as well as Management Science, and Annals of Operations Research.
650 2 4 $a Financial History. $3 1104729
650 2 4 $a Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics. $3 1365903
650 1 4 $a Quantitative Economics. $3 1366056
650 0 $a History. $3 669538
650 0 $a Finance. $3 559073
650 0 $a Macroeconomics. $3 554837
650 0 $a Econometrics. $3 556981
710 2 $a SpringerLink (Online service) $3 593884
773 0 $t Springer Nature eBook
776 0 8 $i Printed edition: $z 9783030994174
776 0 8 $i Printed edition: $z 9783030994198
776 0 8 $i Printed edition: $z 9783030994204
856 4 0 $u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-99418-1
912 $a ZDB-2-ECF
912 $a ZDB-2-SXEF
950 $a Economics and Finance (SpringerNature-41170)
950 $a Economics and Finance (R0) (SpringerNature-43720)