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Precipitation over Indonesia in Observations and Global Reforecasts and Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation.

紀錄類型:	書目-語言資料,手稿 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Precipitation over Indonesia in Observations and Global Reforecasts and Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation./
作者:	Hakiki, Muhammad.
面頁冊數:	1 online resource (153 pages)
附註:	Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 83-02.
Contained By:	Masters Abstracts International83-02.
標題:	Climate change. -
電子資源:	click for full text (PQDT)
ISBN:	9798522949174

Precipitation over Indonesia in Observations and Global Reforecasts and Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation.
Hakiki, Muhammad.

Precipitation over Indonesia in Observations and Global Reforecasts and Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation. - 1 online resource (153 pages)

Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 83-02.

Thesis (M.Sc.)--North Carolina State University, 2021.

Includes bibliographical references

This study examines the impact of MJO phase on the rainfall over four provinces of Indonesia. The data set consist of global ensemble reforecasts and Observation from 1985- 2018. Statistical analysis of rainfall probability distribution show that all four provinces have different daily rainfall patterns, highligting the heterogeneity of the locations. The variability of rainfall show non normal distribution, with Gamma and Weibull distribution as the best fitting toward either observation data or satellite data. We examine the spread and root mean square errors (RMSE) using the ensemble reforecasts. In general, the reforecasts show under-dispersion, with the spread much smaller than RMSE. We also find that the spread and RMSE are sensitive to the phase of the MJO. During the convective (suppressed) phase, the ensemble spread is higher (lower) than its long-term average. This shows that the forecast skill is further degraded during the active phase of the MJO. This highlights the difficulty in making accurate forecasts over the maritime continent.

Electronic reproduction.
Ann Arbor, Mich. :
ProQuest,
2024

Mode of access: World Wide Web

ISBN: 9798522949174Subjects--Topical Terms:

1009004
Climate change.
Index Terms--Genre/Form:

554714
Electronic books.

Precipitation over Indonesia in Observations and Global Reforecasts and Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation.
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504 $a Includes bibliographical references
520 $a This study examines the impact of MJO phase on the rainfall over four provinces of Indonesia. The data set consist of global ensemble reforecasts and Observation from 1985- 2018. Statistical analysis of rainfall probability distribution show that all four provinces have different daily rainfall patterns, highligting the heterogeneity of the locations. The variability of rainfall show non normal distribution, with Gamma and Weibull distribution as the best fitting toward either observation data or satellite data. We examine the spread and root mean square errors (RMSE) using the ensemble reforecasts. In general, the reforecasts show under-dispersion, with the spread much smaller than RMSE. We also find that the spread and RMSE are sensitive to the phase of the MJO. During the convective (suppressed) phase, the ensemble spread is higher (lower) than its long-term average. This shows that the forecast skill is further degraded during the active phase of the MJO. This highlights the difficulty in making accurate forecasts over the maritime continent.
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