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The Cyber Spiral? Operational and Political Implications of Emerging Domains of Warfare.

Record Type:	Language materials, manuscript : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	The Cyber Spiral? Operational and Political Implications of Emerging Domains of Warfare./
Author:	Shawna Lee Sinnott.
Description:	1 online resource (232 pages)
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-11, Section: A.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International85-11A.
Subject:	Political science. -
Online resource:	click for full text (PQDT)
ISBN:	9798382231129

The Cyber Spiral? Operational and Political Implications of Emerging Domains of Warfare.
Shawna Lee Sinnott.

The Cyber Spiral? Operational and Political Implications of Emerging Domains of Warfare. - 1 online resource (232 pages)

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-11, Section: A.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Stanford University, 2024.

Includes bibliographical references

This project examines how international actors send, receive, interpret, attribute, predict, and act on information about their opponents during security crises, with special consideration to conflict involving emerging domains such as cyberspace. The first paper baselines how states perceive each other's images to determine if there are patterns of perception and misperception in these interpretations. This paper uses content analysis of historical wargames from the Cold War to evaluate how states convey and interpret images of resolve. It finds that strategic misperception is very common, and that actors are more likely to underestimate opponents' images of resolve than overestimate them. It also finds little evidence that significant game moves, often described as signals, effectively shift prior assumptions or beliefs; this suggests that assumptions, biases, and other priors are likely drivers of misperception. The second and third papers use scenario-based survey experiments of elite practitioners to establish how decision-makers consider traditional versus emerging technological domains to (1) interpret the intent of adversary actions and (2) assess and assume risk under conditions of uncertainty. These two papers find that practitioners view military actions in cyberspace with many of the characteristics the literature typically ascribes to signals, and that these practitioners view cyber activity as decidedly less escalatory than kinetic activity. We also find that technological uncertainty has almost no effect on the calculus of decision-makers, but assessments of escalatory risk are highly important. Further, almost all US military respondents coalesce in roughly equal numbers around three distinct decision constructs with distinct logics. The surveys reveal a great chasm between US military and US public decision-making involving emerging technologies. The dissertation contributes substantively to the literature on escalation, risk and uncertainty, misperception, signaling, and conflict in cyberspace.

Electronic reproduction.
Ann Arbor, Mich. :
ProQuest,
2024

Mode of access: World Wide Web

ISBN: 9798382231129Subjects--Topical Terms:

558774
Political science.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Historical wargamesIndex Terms--Genre/Form:

554714
Electronic books.

The Cyber Spiral? Operational and Political Implications of Emerging Domains of Warfare.
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520 $a This project examines how international actors send, receive, interpret, attribute, predict, and act on information about their opponents during security crises, with special consideration to conflict involving emerging domains such as cyberspace. The first paper baselines how states perceive each other's images to determine if there are patterns of perception and misperception in these interpretations. This paper uses content analysis of historical wargames from the Cold War to evaluate how states convey and interpret images of resolve. It finds that strategic misperception is very common, and that actors are more likely to underestimate opponents' images of resolve than overestimate them. It also finds little evidence that significant game moves, often described as signals, effectively shift prior assumptions or beliefs; this suggests that assumptions, biases, and other priors are likely drivers of misperception. The second and third papers use scenario-based survey experiments of elite practitioners to establish how decision-makers consider traditional versus emerging technological domains to (1) interpret the intent of adversary actions and (2) assess and assume risk under conditions of uncertainty. These two papers find that practitioners view military actions in cyberspace with many of the characteristics the literature typically ascribes to signals, and that these practitioners view cyber activity as decidedly less escalatory than kinetic activity. We also find that technological uncertainty has almost no effect on the calculus of decision-makers, but assessments of escalatory risk are highly important. Further, almost all US military respondents coalesce in roughly equal numbers around three distinct decision constructs with distinct logics. The surveys reveal a great chasm between US military and US public decision-making involving emerging technologies. The dissertation contributes substantively to the literature on escalation, risk and uncertainty, misperception, signaling, and conflict in cyberspace.
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653 $a Cyber activity
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