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Quantifying Factors Impacting the Cost of Large-Scale Complex Engineered Programs : = A Communication Satellite Program Case Study.

Record Type:	Language materials, manuscript : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Quantifying Factors Impacting the Cost of Large-Scale Complex Engineered Programs :/
Reminder of title:	A Communication Satellite Program Case Study.
Author:	Sikkandar Basha, Nazareen.
Description:	1 online resource (124 pages)
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-12, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International85-12B.
Subject:	Industrial engineering. -
Online resource:	click for full text (PQDT)
ISBN:	9798382802589

Quantifying Factors Impacting the Cost of Large-Scale Complex Engineered Programs : = A Communication Satellite Program Case Study.
Sikkandar Basha, Nazareen.

Quantifying Factors Impacting the Cost of Large-Scale Complex Engineered Programs :A Communication Satellite Program Case Study. - 1 online resource (124 pages)

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-12, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Iowa State University, 2024.

Includes bibliographical references

Cost overruns in large-scale complex space programs are a recurring challenge, often leading to significant financial burdens. This research investigates the factors influencing cost overruns in a geosynchronous communication satellite program using model-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) approach. A simulation model comprising a physics-based satellite model and a parametric cost model is employed for variance-based sensitivity analysis, using acquisition data for validation. The results of GSA using Sobol' analysis reveal that parameters related to system-based requirements significantly impact program costs. This study establishes a foundation for quantifying system parameter impact and uncertainty through a simulation-based model, aiding in cost overrun reduction during the design of future large-scale complex engineered space systems.Additionally, large-scale complex engineered systems (LSCES) also face substantial cost overruns during development. It is essential to identify parameters that impact program costs, but their behavior and uncertainty are often overlooked in global sensitivity analysis (GSA). This work utilizes Bayesian parameter inference to study parameter behavior and quantifies their uncertainty using a simulation-based framework. The physics-based satellite system and cost models form the basis for the simulation, while Bayesian inference is implemented through probabilistic programming with Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The analysis focuses on the advanced extremely high-frequency satellite (AEHF) program data from the selected acquisition report. The results demonstrate right-skewed distributions for parameters such as satellite transmitter power and technology readiness level, indicating proximity to their lower bounds. However, other parameters exhibit left-skewed distributions. This Bayesian approach is effective in estimating parameters, understanding their uncertainty, and assessing their impact on cost in space programs.Although the current study concentrates on a specific case of a geosynchronous communication satellite program, the insights gained and the approaches used could potentially be relevant for comprehending and alleviating cost overruns in a broader range of large-scale complex space programs (LSCSPs) and other LSCES. This research contributes to developing methodologies for identifying and quantifying critical parameters influencing cost overruns, ultimately aiding in the design and management of LSCSPs and LSCES.

Electronic reproduction.
Ann Arbor, Mich. :
ProQuest,
2024

Mode of access: World Wide Web

ISBN: 9798382802589Subjects--Topical Terms:

679492
Industrial engineering.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Bayesian inferenceIndex Terms--Genre/Form:

554714
Electronic books.

Quantifying Factors Impacting the Cost of Large-Scale Complex Engineered Programs : = A Communication Satellite Program Case Study.
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