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POSSIBLE POLITICAL FUTURES OF HONG K...

ProQuest Information and Learning Co.

POSSIBLE POLITICAL FUTURES OF HONG KONG (CHINA).

Record Type:	Language materials, manuscript : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	POSSIBLE POLITICAL FUTURES OF HONG KONG (CHINA)./
Author:	AU, HENRY TAI-KWAN.
Description:	1 online resource (482 pages)
Notes:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 46-02, Section: A, page: 5130.
Subject:	International law. -
Online resource:	click for full text (PQDT)

POSSIBLE POLITICAL FUTURES OF HONG KONG (CHINA).
AU, HENRY TAI-KWAN.

POSSIBLE POLITICAL FUTURES OF HONG KONG (CHINA). - 1 online resource (482 pages)

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 46-02, Section: A, page: 5130.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Hawai'i at Manoa, 1984.

Includes bibliographical references

The 1898 Convention of Peking that leased the New Territories (NT) to Britain is due to expire in 1997. Since over 90% of the Crown Colony of Hong Kong (HK) lies within the leased area, any political changes that affect the NT will certainly affect HK as a whole. What then will be the fate of the 5.5 million people living there? The first part of the dissertation looks at possible political futures for HK through various forecasting methods such as computer simulation, survey research, elite interview and historical analysis. The second part of the dissertation is devoted to the evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the various methods as illustrated by the research results.

Electronic reproduction.
Ann Arbor, Mich. :
ProQuest,
2018

Mode of access: World Wide Web

Subjects--Topical Terms:

557047
International law.
Index Terms--Genre/Form:

554714
Electronic books.

POSSIBLE POLITICAL FUTURES OF HONG KONG (CHINA).
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100 1 $a AU, HENRY TAI-KWAN. $3 1187961
245 1 0 $a POSSIBLE POLITICAL FUTURES OF HONG KONG (CHINA).
264 0 $c 1984
300 $a 1 online resource (482 pages)
336 $a text $b txt $2 rdacontent
337 $a computer $b c $2 rdamedia
338 $a online resource $b cr $2 rdacarrier
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 46-02, Section: A, page: 5130.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Hawai'i at Manoa, 1984.
504 $a Includes bibliographical references
520 $a The 1898 Convention of Peking that leased the New Territories (NT) to Britain is due to expire in 1997. Since over 90% of the Crown Colony of Hong Kong (HK) lies within the leased area, any political changes that affect the NT will certainly affect HK as a whole. What then will be the fate of the 5.5 million people living there? The first part of the dissertation looks at possible political futures for HK through various forecasting methods such as computer simulation, survey research, elite interview and historical analysis. The second part of the dissertation is devoted to the evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the various methods as illustrated by the research results.
520 $a The results of the forecasting methods are discussed in terms of three distinct ideal types of HK's future, namely sinification, status-quo and independence. None of the three ideal types is seen as probable at this point in time. Fifteen variations, three sinification oriented, ten status-quo oriented and two independence oriented, are presented and evaluated from the Chinese, British, HK people's and this author's perspectives. All the variations are possibilities of HK's future. Most variations, especially the status-quo oriented ones which retain an official British presence in HK, are shown improbable at this point in time. However, the Special Administrative Region option is judged probable from the vantage point of the present.
520 $a In addition, all methods are examined with respect to their strengths and weaknesses. However, there is no one particular method that this author can comfortably recommend for exclusive use. The results confirm the author's bias towards the use of multiple methods even though none of the major findings from the different methods contradict each other.
533 $a Electronic reproduction. $b Ann Arbor, Mich. : $c ProQuest, $d 2018
538 $a Mode of access: World Wide Web
650 4 $a International law. $3 557047
655 7 $a Electronic books. $2 local $3 554714
690 $a 0616
710 2 $a ProQuest Information and Learning Co. $3 1178819
710 2 $a University of Hawai'i at Manoa. $3 1182035
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=8508775 $z click for full text (PQDT)

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