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An Assessment of North Carolina's Future Electricity System Under Uncertainty.

Record Type:	Language materials, manuscript : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	An Assessment of North Carolina's Future Electricity System Under Uncertainty./
Author:	Li, Binghui.
Description:	1 online resource (190 pages)
Notes:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 79-12(E), Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International79-12B(E).
Subject:	Electrical engineering. -
Online resource:	click for full text (PQDT)
ISBN:	9780438283459

An Assessment of North Carolina's Future Electricity System Under Uncertainty.
Li, Binghui.

An Assessment of North Carolina's Future Electricity System Under Uncertainty. - 1 online resource (190 pages)

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 79-12(E), Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--North Carolina State University, 2018.

Includes bibliographical references

Electricity generation represents the largest share of carbon dioxide emissions across all energy sectors in North Carolina. Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy over the past decade, the share from all renewable energy sources in North Carolina was only 8% in 2016. There is a critical need to examine state-specific, long-term energy pathways that achieve future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This thesis is dedicated to a rigorous examination of electricity futures for North Carolina.

Electronic reproduction.
Ann Arbor, Mich. :
ProQuest,
2018

Mode of access: World Wide Web

ISBN: 9780438283459Subjects--Topical Terms:

596380
Electrical engineering.
Index Terms--Genre/Form:

554714
Electronic books.

An Assessment of North Carolina's Future Electricity System Under Uncertainty.
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245 1 3 $a An Assessment of North Carolina's Future Electricity System Under Uncertainty.
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300 $a 1 online resource (190 pages)
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500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 79-12(E), Section: B.
500 $a Adviser: Joseph DeCarolis.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--North Carolina State University, 2018.
504 $a Includes bibliographical references
520 $a Electricity generation represents the largest share of carbon dioxide emissions across all energy sectors in North Carolina. Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy over the past decade, the share from all renewable energy sources in North Carolina was only 8% in 2016. There is a critical need to examine state-specific, long-term energy pathways that achieve future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This thesis is dedicated to a rigorous examination of electricity futures for North Carolina.
520 $a As one of the only two locations with near-shore access to the Gulf Stream, North Carolina can potentially employ Gulf Stream energy as a low-carbon electricity source. However, rigorous techno-economic assessment is required to determine whether novel marine energy technologies can be economically competitive in future energy systems. In addition to more focused, technology-specific assessments, it is critical to consider how the deployment of specific technologies affects the rest of the power system. Therefore, long-term electricity system planning should systematically consider the operation of all electricity generating technologies within the entire system.
520 $a This thesis provides a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of ocean turbines operating in the Gulf Stream off the North Carolina coast and a state-level analysis of the North Carolina electric power sector through 2050. This thesis fulfills the following objectives: (1) evaluate the techno-economic feasibility of Gulf Stream energy off the North Carolina coast; (2) examine the future North Carolina electricity system through 2050 under different future scenarios using an energy system optimization model; and (3) develop a framework to consider investments in specific energy technologies while accounting for future uncertainties by combining stochastic programming and decision analysis.
520 $a In addition, a diverse set of methods are utilized to address future uncertainties faced in this study. A portfolio optimization model is developed to reduce variations associated with Gulf Stream electricity output. In the state-level electricity system modeling study, multiple scenarios are developed to explore the effects of different fossil fuel price trajectories and implementation of the U.S. EPA's Clean Power Plan (CPP). A method is also developed to estimate the break-even capital cost associated with technologies not deployed, which can be used to identify parameter ranges for sensitivity analysis. In the last section, the state-level analysis in the previous chapter is extended by including a two-stage stochastic programming model that explicitly considers future fuel price uncertainty with and without future climate policy. The stochastic optimization results are then embedded in a decision tree that considers the probability of future climate policy.
520 $a The thesis work suggests the following high-level insights. The techno-economic analysis in Chapter 2 indicates that the lowest levelized cost for a single 16 MW site can reach 400 $/MWh. The portfolio optimization demonstrates that geographic diversification of ocean current sites can reduce the variability in Gulf Stream electricity production by over an order of magnitude and the lowest levelized cost for an 80 MW portfolio can reach below 300 $/MWh. Consideration of Gulf Stream energy within an electricity system model indicates that it is not a cost-effective option when compared to other competing renewables. The state-level electricity system study detailed in Chapter 3 also suggests that high natural gas prices without the CPP can make coal cost-effective, leading to increased CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. By contrast, the CPP suppresses new coal capacity, capping CO2 emissions and leading to reductions in SO2 and NOX emissions. Chapter 4 indicates that under baseline cost and performance assumptions, the optimal investment strategy avoids small modular reactor (SMR) deployment before 2025, while under optimistic assumptions of SMR capital costs, the optimal strategy involves making an SMR investment. The methodology developed in Chapter 4 can be applied to a number of different energy-related technology investments.
533 $a Electronic reproduction. $b Ann Arbor, Mich. : $c ProQuest, $d 2018
538 $a Mode of access: World Wide Web
650 4 $a Electrical engineering. $3 596380
650 4 $a Operations research. $3 573517
650 4 $a Public policy. $3 1002398
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710 2 $a ProQuest Information and Learning Co. $3 1178819
710 2 $a North Carolina State University. $b Civil Engineering. $3 1180817
773 0 $t Dissertation Abstracts International $g 79-12B(E).
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=10969830 $z click for full text (PQDT)