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Essays in Macroeconomics and International Economics.

Record Type:	Language materials, manuscript : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Essays in Macroeconomics and International Economics./
Author:	Witheridge, William.
Description:	1 online resource (373 pages)
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-12, Section: A.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International85-12A.
Subject:	Political science. -
Online resource:	click for full text (PQDT)
ISBN:	9798383161203

Essays in Macroeconomics and International Economics.
Witheridge, William.

Essays in Macroeconomics and International Economics. - 1 online resource (373 pages)

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-12, Section: A.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--New York University, 2024.

Includes bibliographical references

In this thesis, I study macroeconomic policies in emerging-market economies. I investigate monetary and fiscal policy interactions and inflation, the political economy of monetary policy and inflation, and the role of the exchange rate in economic growth and development.In the first chapter, I study monetary policy and inflation in emerging markets and the interaction with fiscal policy. I measure monetary policy shocks-unanticipated changes in monetary policy-using changes in exchange rates around monetary policy announcements. I validate this approach against existing monetary policy shocks. I find that in response to an unanticipated rise in interest rates-a monetary policy tightening-inflation increases and output falls in emerging markets. This inflation response is opposite the one generally found for advanced economies. I show the results are in line with high-frequency changes in inflation expectations. I develop a small open economy New Keynesian model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions. I show a fiscal-led policy mix, i.e., a weak fiscal policy reaction of taxes to changes in government debt and accommodative monetary policy, can explain the increase in inflation. The estimated quantitative model finds a fiscal-led policy mix in emerging markets. The fiscal-led policy mix is supported by the effect of U.S. monetary policy shocks on emerging markets. I also study optimal monetary policy conditional on a fiscal-led policy regime.The second chapter studies the impact of political intervention in monetary policy on inflation. I examine episodes of political pressure on central banks in emerging markets and find that market inflation expectations increase following political pressure events. I model the game between a government and a central bank in a New Keynesian economy where the government can intervene and take control of monetary policy. I show the central bank may set inflation above its target to prevent government intervention. The quantitative model finds the threat of government intervention in monetary policy can explain half of the observed increase in inflation above the central bank's target.The third chapter, co-authored with Pablo Ottonello and Diego Perez, studies the role of exchange rates in industrial policy. We construct an open-economy macroeconomic framework with production externalities and show that the desirability of these policies critically depends on the dynamic patterns of externalities. When they are stronger in earlier stages of development, economies that are converging to the technological frontier can improve welfare by intervening in foreign exchange markets, keeping the exchange rate undervalued, and speeding up the transition; economies that are not converging to the technological frontier are better off not using the exchange rate as an industrial policy tool. Capital-flow mobility and labor market dynamism play a central role in the effectiveness of these policies. We also discuss the role of capital controls as an industrial policy tool and use our framework to interpret historical experiences.

Electronic reproduction.
Ann Arbor, Mich. :
ProQuest,
2024

Mode of access: World Wide Web

ISBN: 9798383161203Subjects--Topical Terms:

558774
Political science.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Emerging marketsIndex Terms--Genre/Form:

554714
Electronic books.

Essays in Macroeconomics and International Economics.
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520 $a In this thesis, I study macroeconomic policies in emerging-market economies. I investigate monetary and fiscal policy interactions and inflation, the political economy of monetary policy and inflation, and the role of the exchange rate in economic growth and development.In the first chapter, I study monetary policy and inflation in emerging markets and the interaction with fiscal policy. I measure monetary policy shocks-unanticipated changes in monetary policy-using changes in exchange rates around monetary policy announcements. I validate this approach against existing monetary policy shocks. I find that in response to an unanticipated rise in interest rates-a monetary policy tightening-inflation increases and output falls in emerging markets. This inflation response is opposite the one generally found for advanced economies. I show the results are in line with high-frequency changes in inflation expectations. I develop a small open economy New Keynesian model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions. I show a fiscal-led policy mix, i.e., a weak fiscal policy reaction of taxes to changes in government debt and accommodative monetary policy, can explain the increase in inflation. The estimated quantitative model finds a fiscal-led policy mix in emerging markets. The fiscal-led policy mix is supported by the effect of U.S. monetary policy shocks on emerging markets. I also study optimal monetary policy conditional on a fiscal-led policy regime.The second chapter studies the impact of political intervention in monetary policy on inflation. I examine episodes of political pressure on central banks in emerging markets and find that market inflation expectations increase following political pressure events. I model the game between a government and a central bank in a New Keynesian economy where the government can intervene and take control of monetary policy. I show the central bank may set inflation above its target to prevent government intervention. The quantitative model finds the threat of government intervention in monetary policy can explain half of the observed increase in inflation above the central bank's target.The third chapter, co-authored with Pablo Ottonello and Diego Perez, studies the role of exchange rates in industrial policy. We construct an open-economy macroeconomic framework with production externalities and show that the desirability of these policies critically depends on the dynamic patterns of externalities. When they are stronger in earlier stages of development, economies that are converging to the technological frontier can improve welfare by intervening in foreign exchange markets, keeping the exchange rate undervalued, and speeding up the transition; economies that are not converging to the technological frontier are better off not using the exchange rate as an industrial policy tool. Capital-flow mobility and labor market dynamism play a central role in the effectiveness of these policies. We also discuss the role of capital controls as an industrial policy tool and use our framework to interpret historical experiences.
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