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Time to change the time-for-change model? : = Modifying a U.S. presidential vote share prediction model with a measure of grassroots involvement.

Record Type:	Language materials, manuscript : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Time to change the time-for-change model? :/
Reminder of title:	Modifying a U.S. presidential vote share prediction model with a measure of grassroots involvement.
Author:	Martinez-Schiferl, Michael Andrew.
Description:	1 online resource (55 pages)
Notes:	Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 47-05, page: 2623.
Contained By:	Masters Abstracts International47-05.
Subject:	Political science. -
Online resource:	click for full text (PQDT)
ISBN:	9781109071535

Time to change the time-for-change model? : = Modifying a U.S. presidential vote share prediction model with a measure of grassroots involvement.
Martinez-Schiferl, Michael Andrew.

Time to change the time-for-change model? :Modifying a U.S. presidential vote share prediction model with a measure of grassroots involvement. - 1 online resource (55 pages)

Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 47-05, page: 2623.

Thesis (M.P.P.)--Georgetown University, 2009.

Includes bibliographical references

Over the past two decades political scientists have produced models that take a scientific approach toward predicting and evaluating election effects and outcomes. This paper seeks to improve upon one of the most well-known U.S. presidential election forecasting models, Alan Abramowitz's time-for-change model, by including a new measure of campaign performance. This paper tests the hypothesis of whether including a measure of small donor contributions, as a proxy for grassroots involvement as a result of campaign activity, is important to forecasting vote share outcome. This study finds that including the small donor contributions ratio in the time-for-change model does not change the signs of the other covariates. More importantly, the small donor contributions ratio is highly statistically significant, suggesting that the small donor contributions ratio may be a good predictor for presidential election vote share prediction models. Including the small donor contributions ratio improved the model's goodness-of-fit and standard error of the estimate, but not necessarily the out-of-sample error. The results suggest that if the two-major-party candidates in a race have similar proportions of grassroots involvement, the incumbent candidate enjoys an estimated 2.2% advantage in the two-party vote share. If this ratio favors the incumbent 2:1, then the advantage is 4.4%; if the ratio instead favors the challenger 2:1, then the incumbent's advantage is reduced to 1.1%.

Electronic reproduction.
Ann Arbor, Mich. :
ProQuest,
2018

Mode of access: World Wide Web

ISBN: 9781109071535Subjects--Topical Terms:

558774
Political science.
Index Terms--Genre/Form:

554714
Electronic books.

Time to change the time-for-change model? : = Modifying a U.S. presidential vote share prediction model with a measure of grassroots involvement.
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502 $a Thesis (M.P.P.)--Georgetown University, 2009.
504 $a Includes bibliographical references
520 $a Over the past two decades political scientists have produced models that take a scientific approach toward predicting and evaluating election effects and outcomes. This paper seeks to improve upon one of the most well-known U.S. presidential election forecasting models, Alan Abramowitz's time-for-change model, by including a new measure of campaign performance. This paper tests the hypothesis of whether including a measure of small donor contributions, as a proxy for grassroots involvement as a result of campaign activity, is important to forecasting vote share outcome. This study finds that including the small donor contributions ratio in the time-for-change model does not change the signs of the other covariates. More importantly, the small donor contributions ratio is highly statistically significant, suggesting that the small donor contributions ratio may be a good predictor for presidential election vote share prediction models. Including the small donor contributions ratio improved the model's goodness-of-fit and standard error of the estimate, but not necessarily the out-of-sample error. The results suggest that if the two-major-party candidates in a race have similar proportions of grassroots involvement, the incumbent candidate enjoys an estimated 2.2% advantage in the two-party vote share. If this ratio favors the incumbent 2:1, then the advantage is 4.4%; if the ratio instead favors the challenger 2:1, then the incumbent's advantage is reduced to 1.1%.
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